Festival season: Several trends emerge as companies woo consumers

Never mind the pollution and the haze. Ahead of Diwali, festivities are in the air. Businesses have a game plan with Diwali in mind. Etailers lead the charge. Flipkart has signed up an enviable star cast, including Amitabh Bachchan, Deepika Padukone, Ranbir Kapoor and Virat Kohli, to woo buyers. Relatively understated, Amazon is leaning on its global might and millions to roll out its Great Indian Festival, its third back-to-back sales. From restaurants to malls, airlines to telecom operators, fashion wear to consumer electronics, real estate to cars, virtually every consumption category has a spin on festivities.

Amid dull sales, automakers hope Diwali and its new launches (Hyundai Santro to M&M’s Marazzo) will bring some sparkle. Mobile phone sellers launched over 65 handsets. Airlines are offering discounted tickets. Even Dubai Duty Free is entering the fray, slashing prices by 20%. Diwali frenzy is understandable. In India, thanks to festivals and weddings, the October-December quarter is the most critical for businesses in grabbing sales. In a country that celebrates one festival after another, festivities legitimise consumption and are a critical link between the society and a consumption-driven economy.

A few trends are discernible this Diwali. Digital is the new battleground. Offline retailers such as Big Bazaar as well as dealers of big brands are working hard to remain relevant and reconfigure their strategy. With more than 450 million internet users, over 400 million smartphones and the arrival of global retailing giants like Amazon, Alibaba and Walmart, expect digital fireworks to gain momentum. Moving beyond metros, both Flipkart and Amazon are now deepening their reach to access consumers in smaller towns. Intense competition benefits consumers so sales and offers are getting better. Retailers are adding bells and whistles to product offerings in terms of service (installation and delivery) and freebies (screen insurance). Low-cost or no-cost EMIs are a big hit. With smart TVs doing brisk sales, expect OTTs like Netflix and Amazon Prime to gear up for big growth.



Two structural shifts are important to note. Even as public discourse is getting polarised, festivals are becoming more secular as Indians embrace cross-cultural traditions from Diwali to Halloween, Onam to Karva Chauth. Two, since 2000, India’s consumer spending is steadily shifting from merchandise to services, says Technopak chairman Arvind Singhal. The merchandise share in consumption spend has dipped from 70% around 2000 to 48% now, thanks to services like education, leisure and travel.

Did someone mention the bad news gripping India? Car sales are hurting. Industries from airlines to telecom are steeped in losses. Amid rising fuel prices, weak rupee, high interest rates and credit crisis, layoffs are routine and investment is muted.

Well, life is a lot about perceptions, of seeing the glass half full rather than half empty. Festivals help you reboot, and change the lens with which you see the world. Here’s wishing that this Diwali manages to do just that for you.

Ecommerce Slugfest
So, who is winning the ecommerce battle this year? “The sensitivity of the numbers can’t be emphasised enough. We will need to wait for the data to comment on it,” says Navkendar Singh, associate research director (devices and ecosystem), India and South Asia, IDC. So, on record few are willing to lay their bets.

However, it’s possible to gauge a sense from conversations. We spoke with more than two dozen people, including avid online shoppers and expert ecommerce watchers, to bring you a ringside view. Since mobile phone is the hottest and the most visible selling category across platforms, here’s how this slugfest is playing out. Snapdeal seems to be almost out of the reckoning. “Flush with funds, it’s a battle between Alibaba (Paytm), Amazon and Walmart (Flipkart),” says Singh. Even among the trio, while Paytm has made some inroads, it’s a race between Amazon and Flipkart.

Who is leading? It’s mostly a draw, at least for now. (The third sale is ongoing at the time of writing.) Both etailers have managed to create buzz and are evenly poised on sales, offers and the logistics of order processing and delivery. Both etailers are also equally placed in their mobile phone offerings, exclusive models and range. “While Flipkart has the maximum number of exclusive launches, they are more focused on the volume segment. Amazon has a skew towards the premium segment,” says Anshika Jain, analyst, Counterpoint Technology Market Research.

What is beyond doubt is that both Flipkart and Amazon are burning a lot of money this season. Shoppers, enjoy as long as it lasts!


Biggest Retailer
Guess who is India’s biggest retailer? Not Walmart. Not Flipkart. Not Amazon. The title must go to Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Retail. With a quarterly ( July-September 2018-19) revenue of Rs 32,436 crore (compared with Rs 14,646 crore in the same quarter last year), it is India’s biggest multi-category product retailer in terms of sales and store network (9,146 retail stores and 512 petro outlets), with a footprint that spans verticals like consumer electronics, grocery, fuel, fashion and lifestyle. Its plans look aggressive — by FY2020 it wants to open 6,000 outlets and hit a topline of $20 billion.

Bear in mind that Reliance Jio’s aggressive expansion (215 million subscribers in 25 months) will add more synergistic ballast to Reliance Retail’s future growth. The two can easily cross-sell products and deals across its millions of customers. “It’s only a question of time when Reliance begins to tap its Jio platform for selling merchandise,” says Arvind Singhal, chairman of retail consultancy firm Technopak.


The Mi Onslaught
In India, the world’s second largest market for smartphones, China’s Xiaomi is leading the charge. It has been a meteoric rise for the $18 billion Chinese firm, which was founded in 2010 and entered India late in 2014 with a big online push. Today, the company leads the race in India with 30% market share. It sold 12 million smartphones in Q3 2018.

The buzz is that this Diwali, Xiaomi is rapidly tightening its grip on other segments. Raghu Reddy, head, category and online sales, Xiaomi India, says: “Diwali sales have been phenomenal. We set a new record — sold 2.5 million devices in less than 2.5 days.” The company, which has set up a plant in India for smart TVs and six plants for smartphones, rolled out an aggressive pricing strategy this Diwali with a big focus on smart TV. It sold over 100,000 LED TVs. Mi is the No. 1 smart TV brand as per IDC quarterly report. It also sold over 400,000 Mi Ecosystem products like wearable smart bands.

Walmart: Landed but not Arrived
In the ecommerce world, this Diwali is special. In August, Walmart acquired 77% stake in Flipkart in a $16 billion deal. This is the first big battle the two global retailing giants — $500 billion Walmart and $178 billion Amazon — are fighting in India.

Looks like Diwali came a bit too early to feel the Walmart impact here. Smrithi Ravichandran, who heads growth at Flipkart, when asked about the Walmart effect this year, says: “For Flipkart, this Diwali was business as usual, nothing different... it came too soon” for Walmart to deliver its Diwali greetings via Flipkart.

However, Amazon would rather play the ignore game. Kishore Thota, director for customer experience and marketing, Amazon India, starts his interview with this reporter on the festival season with the opening line: “Before I tell you what this Diwali is about, I wanted to mention what it is not about. It is not about competition for us!”

Little Less Glitter
India, the world’s second largest consumer of gold (China overtook it in 2014), is reassessing its love affair with the yellow metal. Multiple factors are weighing in on this relationship — muted sentiments, war on cash, curbs on black money, increased government scrutiny of gold buyers, and sharp increase in gold prices in India, thanks to rupee depreciation (this happened even as prices dipped globally).

Today, gold prices in India are at their highest in a long time (See data above). Dhanteras, Akshaya Tritiya and the upcoming wedding season are the biggest drivers of gold purchase in India. As a result, the October-December quarter is the biggest for gold sales. “Indications are that this year, consumer sentiments are not so upbeat,” says Somasundaram PR, managing director India, World Gold Council.

Adding Bells & Whistles
For etailers, products/price offerings seem to be a hygiene factor this festival season. The differentiation is on adding a range of freebies and services. To make deeper inroads into the big-ticket consumer durables segment, there is thrust on convergence of installation and delivery. Giving customer a smoother exchange offer and experience to let them upgrade/update their refrigerators, TVs, mobile phones etc is a thrust area.

“The big thing for us is giving our customers peace of mind and keeping the affordability lever in mind,” says Kishore Thota, director for customer experience & marketing, Amazon India. Tying up with almost all banks for a range of low-cost and no-cost EMI has been a big trend. On Amazon, about 75% of buyers who paid by card opted for no-cost EMI, according to company data. Amazon’s offer on free screen protection with mobile phones has also been a big hit.

How does Amazon make it happen? “We build strong partnerships. With the kind of volume transactions we offer, somebody can build a business in 30 days. Acko is a relatively new player in screen protection. It (Amazon tieup) can be a huge jump starter for Acko,” says Thota.


Damp Squib
On multiple counts, offline traders in India are hurting. Onslaught by etailers is a big factor. Amid buoyant sales, brick-and-mortar electronic stores selling consumer electronics and mobile phones are staring at their worst Diwali in five years. For them, the Diwali season sales have reportedly crashed by up to half as compared to the previous year, in the three-week period beginning with Navratra. With attractive deals, consumers are flocking to etailers like Amazon and Flipkart to make their purchase. It’s a theme that’s playing out from mobile phones to consumer durables like TVs and refrigerators.

For a completely different set of reasons, wholesale traders in Chandni Chowk in Delhi are bracing for a difficult Diwali. Rakesh Kumar Yadav, president of the Federation of Sadar Bazar Traders Association, says things are bad. The association has close to 40,000 traders. If it was demonetisation in 2016, the aftereffects of GST have been roiling them since last year. Historically, Delhi with low taxes was an attractive sourcing market for traders nationwide. With GST making taxes uniform, wholesale markets with creaky infrastructure like Chandni Chowk have lost their edge in branded products.

Since it is a largely cash-driven market with only 25% billing and a high degree of tax evasion earlier, GST rollout has made things very difficult. “Our children don’t want to join our business. They see no future here,” says Yadav.


Bollywood’s Muted Diwali
Like everyone else, Bollywood has planned an impressive lineup for October-December, the Dussehra-Christmas season, considered the most lucrative months. About 30 movies are due for release, with about Rs 1,200 crore reportedly riding on them.

The lineup includes Yash Raj Films’ Rs 150 crore Thugs of Hindostan starring Aamir Khan, scheduled for Diwali, Shah Rukh Khan’s Zero, Salman Khan Films’ Loveyatri, Kajol-starrer Helicopter Eela, Govinda’s FryDay, Ajay Devgn’s Total Dhamaal, Reliance Entertainment’s Namaste England, Saif Ali Khan’s Baazaar, Sharman Joshi’s Kaashi in Search of Ganga, Rajkummar Rao’s 5 Weddings, Neil Nitin Mukesh’s Dassehra, comedy drama Chal Jaa Bapu and Rajinikanth’s science fiction film 2.0.

So far, it has not been a good run-up to Diwali. Ayushmann Khurrana’s films Andhadhun and Badhaai Ho are doing well and Saif Ali Khan’s Baazaar is gaining momentum after a slow start. But for a majority of released films, it seems like a washout this festival season. At least so far.


Pollution Spurs Sales
Come Diwali and the news of pollution begins to make headlines in northern India. Thanks to changing weather conditions and crop burning, smog and poor visibility get attention from the media, judiciary, environmentalists, political class and average Indians. A slew of measures are being rolled out to curb the menace.

But there’s one section for whom pollution is good news. It’s the sellers of air purifiers and pollution masks. During the sales season, Amazon witnessed a 13-fold spike (over a normal day) in the sale of air purifiers. In October, its sales grew 2.5 times vis-a-vis last year. The segment is dominated by Philips, Xiaomi and Honeywell. Amazon is doing its bit, stoking sales with its two-hour delivery for Prime customers in Delhi.

Even the sale of anti-pollution masks has witnessed a three-fold increase (over a normal day) in the last eight weeks. Expectedly, top cities buying these products are NCR, Mumbai and Bengaluru.

Offline Shopping: The Future World
Who better then Kishore Biyani’s Future Group to get a view from the brick-and-mortar world? The Rs 30,000 crore-plus group has over 2,000 modern retail stores across 355 cities with brands like Easyday, Big Bazaar, Hometown etc and 500 million customer walk-ins a year.

“Sentiments are extremely positive. Our sales are in strong double digits so far. Closer to Diwali, our numbers have started galloping across all our categories,” says Sadashiv Nayak, CEO, Big Bazaar, Future Group. Nayak sees four clear trends.

One, smaller towns (where digital has yet to penetrate deeply) are seeing “exponential growth far higher than big cities”. Two, with price/product innovations — like gift offerings starting at Rs 49 — many new customers are coming into the organised retailing fold. Three, instead of traditional mithais and chocolates, this time consumers are exploring gifts such as cups and sippers. Four, shoppers are coming as a family unit, especially in small towns.


Smartphones Ring Loud
Smartphone launches, deals and sales are creating the biggest noise this Diwali. Over 65 new models have been launched so far. India, the world’s second largest smartphone market, has become one of the buzziest battlegrounds for smartphone manufacturers. Redseer Consulting’s Ujjwal Chaudhry, an engagement manager, sees smartphone sales growing by over 70% this festive season.

Both Flipkart and Amazon report that ticket size has increased, with Rs 10,000-15,000 emerging as the sweet spot. While Xiaomi leads with its online offensive, the runner-up, Samsung, has over 80% of its sales coming from offline, say IDC experts. Some etailers like Amazon have been piloting offline-to-online activation — where brick-and-mortar stores become the conduit between Amazon and customers — in small cities by tying up with partners like Storeking.

“If you ask me, the biggest sweet spot for smartphones in India would be Rs 2,200-3,000 category, if anybody can crack it. That’s the price band at which India’s 500 million feature phone users will upgrade,” says Navkendar Singh of IDC.


Temporary Cheer
Thanks to a surge in online sales, Flipkart and Amazon are expected to create around 1.2 lakh temporary jobs - from delivery boys to those managing warehouses - to fulfil customer orders this festive season. The two big etailers are looking to double the number they hired in the last festive season. According to data from Indeed, a leading job site, interest in delivery jobs is twice as high as the number of job postings for such roles.

Bengaluru leads with 14% of the demand but the city sees only 4% of such job postings. New Delhi sees the maximum job postings at 12%. However, the job seeker interest in these roles in the capital city is only 6% of national demand. Delivery jobs, considered gigs, with an average monthly salary of Rs 14,000, are gaining traction among young, educated job seekers. Sashi Kumar, MD of Indeed India, says the job market has a greater number of part-time and flexible avenues of work than before. In the absence of steady jobs, that's some comfort.