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    Will Balakot get Modi votes in upcoming Lok Sabha elections? A 1,500-km stretch holds clue

    Synopsis

    Balakot strikes have found the highest resonance in Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.

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    With 28 seats at stake here, out of which the NDA won 18 last time, the challenge for the BJP is to sustain the momentum till the last two phases in mid-May when the three states go to polls.
    The Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot strikes have found the highest resonance in Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. With 28 seats at stake here, out of which the NDA won 18 last time, the challenge for the BJP is to sustain the momentum till the last two phases in mid-May when the three states go to polls. The Congress has also not been lagging in playing up the right nationalistic sentiment, making it a tough fight for the saffron party.

    PUNJAB
    BJP’s Nationalism Vs Captain’s Nationalism

    From his house in Dinanagar in Punjab’s Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency, Satpal Attri (70) can see the Dinanagar police station just 100 meters away across a couple of fields. It is from here that in 2015, he had heard bullets as Pakistani terrorists stormed the police station, before being gunned down. “We stayed indoors for two days. Now, terror from Pakistan entered my own home,” the retired Punjab Roadways employee says. His son, CRPF constable Maninder Singh (30), died in the Pulwama attack last month. “Pakistan Murdabad” slogans rent the air in Dinanagar when he was cremated.

    Four of the CRPF martyrs of the Pulwama attack were from Punjab; the others hail from Amritsar, Moga and Anandpur Sahib. “The air strike on terrorists in Pakistan gave us solace. Narendra Modi kept his word to hit back,” Maninder’s brother Lakhvish, also in the CRPF, told ET. Travelling across the border constituencies of Amritsar, Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur, the Attri family’s sentiment is shared by many. “Bande Vich Dum Hai (Modi has the strength),” Hardip Singh, who runs an eatery in Hoshiarpur says. He speaks of the development work done by BJP’s Hoshiarpur MP, Vijay Sampla. In Amritsar, locals in the posh Green Avenue or Golden Temple complex speak highly of the surgical strike and the return of Air Force Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman from the Attari-Wagah border. “Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh took the correct nationalistic stand but not others in Congress,”

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    Maninder Singh Ahluwalia, a taxi stand owner in Amritsar, said. Punjab has 13 Lok Sabha seats, two of which (Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur) were won by the BJP in 2014 out of the three above-mentioned seats that BJP contests in alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). BJP lost the Amritsar seat to Captain Amarinder Singh and later lost the Gurdaspur seat in a by-poll last year to Congress state president Sunil Jakhar. But the tide seems to have changed post-Balakot.

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    “We will win all the three seats. . Gurdaspur is a land of ex-servicemen and soldiers. We lost the by-poll as Congress used the state machinery. Congress is unable to even find a candidate in Amritsar,” says Captain Abhimanyu, BJP’s in-charge of Punjab and Chandigarh. “Why did Manmohan Singh not take up the challenge? It has sent a bad signal for the Congress,” Gurmeet Singh, a shopkeeper near Amritsar’s Golden Temple complex, told ET.

    SAD’s Chances, Congress’ Hopes
    BJP hopes the nationalistic sentiment post-Balakot will help its struggling ally, SAD, in the ten seats that the latter will contest from. “Our seats close to the border, like Firozpur and Khandoor Sahib, have seen an impact. Modi’s rallies will also help,” said a senior SAD leader from Malwa region.

    Union Minister Harsimrat Badal has begun her campaign in her Bhatinda seat and is expected to contest from here again. A senior Congress leader said SAD would be wiped out along with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) this time. “All four seats won by AAP in Punjab in 2014 will come to the Congress. The nationalistic stand taken by Captain Amarinder Singh post Pulwama has not been lost on anyone in Punjab. He is an army man himself,” the Congress leader told ET. The Congress, which won only three seats in Punjab in 2014, is looking to triple its tally after its farm loan waiver and the popular ‘Rs 2 Dal and Aata scheme’ started in Punjab. Captain Abhimanyu of BJP concedes that his party has “appreciated” the stand taken by the Punjab CM but questions the statements of others associated with the Congress like Sam Pitroda. He says Arvind Kejriwal will pay in Punjab for his myopic perspective of national security. “AAP will be routed,” Abhimanyu says. A strong tilt towards Modi was also visible to ET in Chandigarh. “The trader community of Chandigarh was unhappy with BJP after GST. But the Balakot air strike has changed it all. People will not vote for Kirron Kherr (Chandigarh BJP MP) but for Modi,” says Rajinder Shankar, a retired government employee in Chandigarh’s Sector 19.

    But the BJP is privately wary that the nationalistic sentiment may not sustain till May 19 when Punjab’s 13 seats and Chandigarh will go to the polls in the last phase. The SADBJP alliance had gone out of power in Punjab in 2017, despite the surgical strikes in Pakistan four months earlier.

    HARYANA
    BJP Gets a Political Lifeline

    In a state where the BJP seemed to be in trouble till last year given the non-performance of the Manohar Lal government, the Balakot strikes has come as a political life-line. Locals in Karnal, from where Lal has been an MLA since 2014, speak more about the prime minister’s step to hit Pakistan than the initiatives of the state government run by their MLA as CM. “Haryana is a land of soldiers. My father was in the Army. Nationalism is a way of life for us –– what has happened (Balakot) is a hot topic of discussion in circles here,” Dharamveer Sharma, a farmer living in a village near Karnal city told ET. “Mahaul acha hai, logon mein ek alag junoon hai (the mood is good and people have high enthusiasm),” Haryana BJP president Subhash Barala said.

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    This seems true for many pockets in Kurukshetra and Ambala which ET visited. While some farmers in Ambala’s Dhurala village spoke of getting Rs 2,000 under the PM Kisan Nidhi scheme, another group of locals at the famous Puran Singh Dhaba in Ambala, the city with a cantonment and an Air Force Station, speak of how the country “needs a strong and decisive leader who can handle Pakistan” rather than an “immature and inexperienced leader” in “such testing times”. BJP’s Barala says he respects people’s sentiments. “We are not trying to encash this (Balakot strikes) for political gains. There are sentiments of the people. We don’t want to politicise such sentiments or others to politicise this,” he says.

    Real Issues Neglected: Congress
    Deepender Hooda, the sole Congress MP from Haryana, says: “Our forces are our nation’s forces, not any party’s forces. Our forces have always responded to any misadventures by our nation’s enemies –– be it in 1965, 1971, Kargil, the surgical strike during the UPA regime and the two surgical strikes under the BJP. Any attempt to politicise the sacrifice made by our armed forces is condemnable –– ultimately, people will see through such attempts by any political person.” Haryana’s 10 seats will face polls on May 12 ––two-and-a-half months after the Balakot strikes. “The real issues in Haryana are farmer crisis, unemployment and misgoverance. We still have time…people will gravitate back to the real issues,” Hooda told ET.

    However, the leadership issue in the Congress in Haryana is far from settled. The recent assembly by-poll win in Jind for the BJP and the split in ranks of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), coupled with the collapse of the INLD-BSP alliance, have emboldened BJP’s chances. INLD won its stronghold of Sirsa and Hissar seats in 2014. “BJP will win all the ten seats in Haryana this time,” Barala claims.

    HIMACHAL PRADESH
    Nationalism Echoes in the Hills

    Jai Ram Thakur, the BJP chief minister of Himachal Pradesh, the party’s union health minister JP Nadda and local BJP MP Shanta Kumar made it a point to travel to Dhewa village in Kangra to attend the funeral of CRPF constable Tilak Raj last month after his martyrdom in Pulwama. The prominent Congress faces in the state –– former chief minister Virbhadra Singh or his MLA son Vikramaditya Singh –– were conspicuous by their absence. Travelling through Kangra and Hamirpur Lok Sabha constituencies out of the four seats in Himachal Pradesh, ET found that people were aware of the sacrifice made by Tilak Raj, who was also a popular Himachali singer, and air strikes that followed. “Himachal mein toh hum sipahi ke liye mandir bhi bana dete hain (we even make temples for soliders in Himachal),” Puneet Tanwar in Manjhiar village of Kangra said, pointing to one such temple on Kangra highway for martyr Rai Singh Raina.

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    Statewise seat tally

    BJP veteran Shanta Kumar is not recontesting from Kangra and the ticket has gone to state minister Kishan Kapoor. In Dhewa village, Surjit Singh, a teacher at the government school where Tilak Raj studied and which the CM has promised to upgrade, says people seem less concerned about the local candidate and vouch for Modi as they see him speaking often on TV.

    “People were happy when they heard of Balakot,” Singh says. The school is the local local polling booth and twothird of the votes here have traditionally gone to the BJP. Travelling across K a n d r a a n d Hamirpur, one can spot tricolours hosted in towns like Ranital and atop houses in villages like Jawali. “There is 90% literacy in Hamirpur. People read newspapers, they are aware of social media. The sentiment of nationalism is very strong in Himachal Pradesh –– we are a devbhumi as well as a land of valour,” Hamirpur MP of BJP, Anurag Thakur, who is contesting the seat again, told ET. Congress has begun its campaign for the 2019 elections in Himachal Pradesh with wall paintings which ridicule Modi for “being on foreign tours for last five years, for running a ‘Jumlon ki sarkar’ and giving no jobs”. But many people spoke to ET about the Rs 1,300 a month pension started by the new BJP state government for people above 70 years than “Modi’s broken promises”. The nationalism spirit also seems to have thrown Congress’ ridicule of Modi into the background. Nearly every home in my constituency has a member in the armed forces, Anurag Thakur says. “With Congress leaders making one statement after another –– like why India attacked Pakistan, people understand everything who is working for the country and who is against it,” Thakur says. Himachal Pradesh goes to the polls in the last phase –– on May 19. The Congress campaign seems to be slacking and the party unit remains faction-ridden –– Virbhadra Singh has already said he won’t contest.

    UTTARAKHAND
    Security Dominates Discussions

    National security is emerging as a political issue in Uttarakhand, which also has a high population of serving and retired personnel from the defence forces –– this is the sense ET could get while travelling through the Pauri Garhwal and Tehri Garhwal areas of the state. But many others feel that the national security issue is dwarfing the real problems of people like joblessness and migration.

    Uttarakhand, which goes to polls in the first phase on April 11, lost two of its natives –– Mohan Lal Raturi (CRPF’s assistant sub-inspector) and Virendra Singh Rana (CRPF constable) –– in the Pulwama terror attack. Within a week of the Pulwama incident, two army officers –– Chitresh Bisht and Vibhuti Narayan Dhondhiyal –– were killed in J&K. BJP, which won all the five LS seats of the state in 2014, is leaving no stone unturned to project the national security issue.

    “The air strike changed the political situation of the state. While local issues like migration and unemployment have taken a backseat, national security is the most debated issue in our area,” said Ravindra Singh of Khirasu village of Pauri Garhwal district.

    “People love to see an aggressive face, like PM Narendra Modi, in Uttarakhand in view of the high presence of serving/retired army-men and para military forces,” he added. A native of Karna Prayag (Pauri Garhwal), Neha (20 yrs), who will vote for the first time, said there is always a strong possibility for a war between India and Pakistan. “Modi’s decision to give permission for the air strike to end the terror camps in Balakot placed the BJP in an advantageous position in the polls,” she felt.

    Real Issues Skirted
    Devendra Singh Rawat (51), who was standing at a tea stall at Maletha on Char Dham road, says: “National security must not be a political issue. There are many local issues like migration, unemployment, poor infra-structure and environmental hazards in Uttarakhand. It is unfortunate that this LS election in contested in the name of national security.” Yashpal Singh Rawat, who was waiting to catch a bus to his native village Dungari in Pauri Garhwal district at Srinagar bus stand, said: “If a ruling party like BJP wants to project national security as a poll issue in the 2019 LS polls, it means the party is trying to divert people’s attention from the real issu. National security is an emotive issue for the people of Uttarakhand. So, the onus is on the Congress to highlight local issues like migration from the hills and unemployment. It is really unfortunate for the Congress to question the BJP over the air strike,” Rawat told ET. However, BJP candidate Tirath Singh Rawat from Pauri Garhwal seat, who was campaigning at Narkota near Rudra Prayag on Saturday, said national security has remained a poll issue in Uttarakhand which shares its boundaries with Nepal and China. “You can’t ignore national security in a state like Uttarakhand which has its good share of personnel in the Indian army and para military forces. But, we must also focus on issues like migration,” Tirath, who was also president of BJP’ Uttarakhand unit, told ET.

    Congress knows it is difficult for it to counter the BJP on the national security issue. Uttarakhand’s Congress president Pritam Singh, said: “The sacrifices of our jawans must not be politicised. Earlier, BJP sought votes in the name of forming “double engine Ki Sarkar” (same government at the Centre and state). Despite the rule of BJP at the Centre and state, there is no progress,” he said. The BJP government constituted a migration commission in the state but “BJP leaders are now silent on the issue of migration,” he said.

    DELHI
    Exploring Alliance for Survival

    Sensing an immediate advantage for the BJP after the Pulwama attack, the Congress in Delhi that faced a rout after the 2015 elections, is considering an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party, despite a bitter past and veteran leader Sheila Dikshit’s vehement opposition to an alliance. That alliance is yet to become a reality and even as Delhi goes to the polls on May 7, more than two months after the surgical air strikes in Balakot, this issue is expected to remain alive. However, AAP functionaries believe that Pulwama and Balakot will eventually fade during the course of the poll campaign. “During our door-to-door campaigning, we will stick to the issue of full statehood for Delhi,” a senior AAP leader told ET. But the BJP, which holds all the seven parliamentary seats in Delhi, is determined to not let that happen. BJP had held a Vijay Sankalp rally in the city to celebrate the Balakot strikes earlier this month. The party’s state unit hopes that the air-strikes will help galvanise the “excitement” within the cadres and hopes that the issue will remain alive during its poll campaign.

    The party is expected to take up the Pakistan issue while campaigning among first-time voters, BJP sources said. “The issue is not just about terrorism and air strikes as much as it is about national security,” says a senior Delhi BJP functionary adding that the party’s focus will remain on Modi’s ability to counter Pakistan. Defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while addressing a Delhi BJP workers’ meet recently, said: “After the Balakot strike, people feel that India is safe only in the hands of (PM) Modiji. But we should not leave any gaps for people who do negative politics. If Delhi enters the comfort zone, then it will be a message to the country that BJP is not active.” The Congress has been left in the lurch as it is still undecided over its alliance with AAP. Both parties share a similar vote bank–– of Muslims, OBCs and migrants living in the 200-odd unauthorised colonies in the capital. Post-Pulwama, political calculations led to the need to consolidate the anti-BJP votes. The party is yet to announce its poll pitch but is expected to bid to defeat “communal forces” and the BJP. Meanwhile, Kejriwal was one of the first to congratulate the IAF for the air strike. But, he also attacked the BJP on the issue after citing an “internal” survey that claimed that the BJP would face “heavy losses” on account of how Pulwama and Balakot were handled by the ruling party.

    Whether the Pulwama and Balakot attacks will translate into political dividends for the ruling party remains to be seen. The scars of having lost their near and dear ones in the attacks may have angered a good chunk of people along the soldier heartland. But will this emotive sentiment have the legs to stretch for another two and a half months? It would all depend on how the ruling political party can keep the red-hot nationalist embers from dying and how the opposition can bring real issues like poverty, joblessness and migration issues back into focus.


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